Outlook for the UKCS in 2006

Stewardship of the UK’s Oil and Gas Resources

Based on the latest DTI figures UKOOA estimates that there are still somewhere between 16 and 27 billion boe to be recovered from the UKCS over time with a mid case estimate of around 21 billion boe. However little of this will appear without companies’ continued willingness to invest in technically and commercially risky opportunities.

Figure 43: UKCS Projected Reserves

New production will come from:

1. Increased recovery of reserves in currently producing fields (“brownfields”)
2. Development of known discoveries which are mostly small in size and marginal in economic terms
3. Continued new exploration

The latest activity survey shows that the current industry plans may recover up to 11 billion boe from existing fields and new developments over the period from January 2006 to 2030. Of this figure, circa 9.3 billion boe are to be produced from currently sanctioned investments and a further potential 1.7 billion boe from new fields and incremental developments.

The survey shows a more positive picture than anticipated in the previous 2004 survey. Sanctioned investments will now deliver 2 billion boe more than expected a year ago, although the remainder of incremental and new reserves currently being worked has dropped from 3.2 to 1.7 billion boe. The challenge for the industry now is to identify new opportunities from exploration, enhanced recovery and new developments to replace the reserves currently being developed.

Figure 44: Evolution of UKCS Reserves