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UKCS Outlook Each year the oil and gas industry participates in an annual survey to provide a forecast of production, expenditure and activity in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS). UKOOA and the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) jointly collect the data. The 2003 survey encompassed the production and investment plans of over 50 oil and gas companies. They were aggregated and compiled by Professor Alex Kemp (University of Aberdeen) on behalf of UKOOA. Activities are categorised by probability of development on the following basis: Sanctioned: fields in production or under development; Incremental: new projects within sanctioned fields (typically infill drilling; compression or enhanced oil recovery); Probable: new fields with greater than 50% chance of proceeding within five years; Possible: new fields with less than a 50% chance of proceeding within five years. Production Outlook The UKCS remains a world class oil and gas province and will continue to see significant production throughout the decade. Total 2003 production was 4 million barrels of oil and gas equivalent per day (boepd), only slightly below 2002 at 4.2 million boepd. Forecast production, excluding any incremental contribution from exploration and appraisal, is projected to be around 3.7 million boepd in 2004, 3.6 million boepd in 2005 and just below 2.5 million boepd by 2010. New developments should stem the rate of production decline in the short term and figure 1 provides a forecast through to 2010. Figure 1: UKCS Total Production Overview - 2003 — 2010 Forecasts for oil and gas separately are provided in figures 2 and 3. Figure 2: UKCS Liquids Production Overview - 2003 — 2010 Figure 3: UKCS Gas Production Overview - 2003 — 2010 The UK is expected to remain self sufficient for oil to meet the country's own needs through to 2007/8. Even in 2010, based on the latest projections, the UK will still produce sufficient indigenous hydrocarbons to meet over 75% of its current demand for oil and over 60% of its current demand for gas. If we can begin to narrow the gap between the current projections and the PILOT production vision for 2010 of 3 million boepd we will be able to maintain our self sufficiency for longer with all the consequential economic benefit to the UK.